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Big Pharma Updates - Eyes on Novo Nordisk, Roche, Astra Zeneca, Novartis. AbbVie, and Lilly
- Jana Chisholm
- Aug 25
- 10 min read
We've been keeping Eyes On the Big Pharma updates coming out along with the 2Q25 Results. Lots of news on strategic Plans, M&A, Clinical Data, and more.
Novo Nordisk, according to the company’s new veteran CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar, must reassess its cost structure and reallocate funds to its areas of growth. Novo has quickly fallen behind its main metabolic medicine rival Eli Lilly and the pharmaceutical company’s competing medications Mounjaro and Zepbound, even though it was the first to market with its groundbreaking GLP-1 medications for diabetes and obesity, Ozempic and Wegovy.
The U.S. has seen a surge in the GLP-1 compounding industry as Novo and Lilly both had trouble meeting demand when their medications were first introduced. Although the FDA officially banned mass compounding of Novo’s GLP-1 medications on May 22, the practice has essentially persisted. In the U.S., the market for compounded semaglutide is currently about the same size as Novo’s.
The company’s share price has dropped in recent months due to its difficulties. This time last year, Novo’s shares were valued at almost $130, but they are now little over $45. Novo’s stock went down about 4% following the release of its half-year financial results.
Through the first half of 2025, Novo reported a 16% increase in sales to 154.9 billion Danish kroner, or roughly $24.9 billion. Sales of the company’s diabetes and obesity products, which obviously include Ozempic and Wegovy, increased by 18% at constant exchange rates during that time, bringing in 145.5 billion kroner ($22.7 billion) over the course of six months.
In the second quarter alone, Ozempic sales climbed by around 10% to 31.79 billion kroner, or about $5 billion, while the combined sales of Wegovy and Saxenda in the obesity market jumped by 46.5% to 20.37 billion kroner, or $3.17 billion.
Novo’s performance in the first half of the year represents a significant slowdown for the company, despite the fact that its core medications are still growing. By lowering its sales and profit projection last week, Novo has already signalled that it expects Wegovy and Ozempic sales growth to be slower in the second half of the year. In terms of revenue, Novo formerly projected sales growth of 13% to 21% for the entire year 2025, but now projects sales growth of 8% to 14%.
The new CEO plans to give diabetes and obesity more attention. Novo’s forecast no longer takes into consideration a projected decline in U.S. compounding operations this year, despite the company’s earlier prediction that GLP-1 compounding would decline in the wake of the FDA restrictions in May. Wegovy is currently accumulating about 280,000 prescriptions each week in the U.S., whereas Ozempic prescriptions are currently averaging about 690,000. According to Novo’s research, around one million patients in the U.S. are currently taking compounded GLP-1s.
In an effort to broaden the market for its semaglutide combination, Novo plans to begin selling Ozempic to patients who can pay with cash later this year. The business also plans to keep investing in direct-to-consumer sales channels via NovoCare Pharmacy and look for other partnerships with telehealth firms. Prioritising DTC sales will also help Novo comply with President Donald Trump’s Most Favoured Nation medicine pricing requirements.
As for Novo’s options for stopping illegal compounding, nothing is completely off the table. The vagueness of current U.S. compounding guidelines, which have allowed outsourcers to continue bulk selling compounded GLP-1 by claiming that they are providing individually customised doses for patients, has sparked speculation that the Supreme Court may need to step in. Novo has already filed numerous lawsuits against pharmacies, weight-loss clinics, and med spas that sell compounded semaglutide. The latest round of legal action targets a number of businesses, including Fella Health, Mochi Health, and Prism Aesthetics. In its own series of cases, Eli Lilly has also targeted a number of the companies that Novo is targeting in relation to compounded tirzepatide, the chemical behind Mounjaro and Zepbound.
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Eli Lilly’s experimental oral GLP-1 has caused weight loss of up to 27.3 pounds on average in the first of two pivotal studies, paving the way for a regulatory filing before the end of this year. The findings come from a phase 3 trial called Attain-1, which was conducted in several different countries and recruited adults who were overweight or obese and had at least one weight-related illness, such cardiovascular disease or high blood pressure. The study did not include those with diabetes.
Participants in the trial were randomly assigned to receive either a placebo or 6 mg, 12 mg, or 36 mg of the GLP-1 receptor agonist orforglipron. Starting at a daily dose of 1 mg, all individuals in the orforglipron groups increased their dosage every 4 weeks until they reached the final randomised maintenance level. The experiment participants were not subjected to any dietary or water restrictions.
With the maximum dosage of orforglipron administered once daily being linked to a 12.4% (27.3 pound) weight loss at 72 weeks, Attain-1 achieved its primary objective.
The primary goal was likewise achieved by the other two dose groups: those who took 12 mg lost an average of 9.3% (20.7 pounds) of their body weight, while those who took 6 mg lost an average of 7.8% (17.6 pounds). In contrast, the placebo group lost 0.9% (2.2 pounds) of their body weight.
The pharmaceutical company is positioning the experimental asset for usage in different contexts for the treatment of obesity in addition to the monotherapy treatment scenario. This includes current research on orforglipron as a possible maintenance treatment to help patients who have lost weight with injectable medications, such as Lilly’s Zepbound, maintain their weight loss.
The percentage of body weight decreased was one of the secondary endpoint victories that Lilly emphasised in the recent data drop. In the group that received the highest dosage, 39.6% of patients lost at least 15% of their body weight, and 59.6% lost at least 10%. All three orforglipron dosages decreased systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and non-HDL cholesterol, which are recognised indicators of cardiovascular risk, according to a pooled analysis, Lilly said.
The 36 mg investigational dose resulted in a 47.7% decrease in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, a measure of inflammation linked to an increased risk of heart issues, in a predetermined exploratory analysis.
With gastrointestinal side effects being the most frequent, orforglipron’s safety profile was generally in line with that of the well-established GLP-1 receptor agonist class. There were no liver safety indicators found. AE-related discontinuation rates were 2.6% for the placebo group, 5.1% for the low dose group, 7.7% for the medium cohort, and 10.3% for the high dose arm.
The rates of treatment discontinuation were 21.9%, 22.5%, and 24.4% overall, which is less than the 29.9% of people who stopped taking a placebo. Regarding the discontinuation rates, the business found nothing noteworthy. Though efficacy fell short of analysts’ predictions of 14.4%, the tolerability profile was in line with expectations. Additionally, unlike its peptide equivalents, orforglipron’s gastrointestinal adverse events (AEs) seemed to last past the first titration period. From a stock viewpoint, experts believe smaller competitors may be able to take advantage of Eli Lilly’s underperformance from their otherwise unbeatable obesity franchise.
Lilly anticipates presenting more thorough study results at the 2025 European Association for the Study of Diabetes Annual Meeting in September. In light of these findings, the company is aiming to submit applications for approval to international organisations by the end of 2025. The business is making significant investments with the aim of satisfying expected demand.
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Roche is thinking of adopting a direct-to-consumer (DTC) business strategy, like some of its competitors, in order to eliminate intermediaries, as high prescription prices continue to be a source of concern for American legislators. Innovative drugmakers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) have long been at odds over the high cost of pharmaceuticals in the United States. Pharmaceutical companies have accused the middlemen of favouring more expensive drugs in order to receive larger rebates.
Thomas Schinecker, the CEO of Roche, stated that approximately half of the money spent on pharmaceuticals in the U.S. healthcare system goes directly to PBMs rather than the companies that make the medications. He suggested that the United States cut drug prices in half, eliminate the middlemen who do not contribute to innovation at all, and reap the benefits without having to take any risks.
He cited the case of Roche’s Ocrevus, a medication for multiple sclerosis, which was initially priced at a 25% discount to the current standard of treatment but ultimately became more costly for patients due to PBM involvement. One way to improve patient price without stifling innovation would be to provide the medications straight to the customer. The U.S. government and its Department of Health and Human Services have already spoken with the company about the issue.
One of the medications that the United States targeted in the first wave of its Inflation Reduction Act-mandated price reduction, the mega-blockbuster blood thinner Eliquis, was recently sold by Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb using a similar strategy. The businesses introduced a direct-to-consumer (DTC) scheme that enables people without insurance or with inadequate insurance to purchase the medication online at a cost significantly lower to its list price. DTC models were previously modified by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly for their separate diabetes and obesity medicines.
According to Roche, the Eliquis DTC program is an excellent example of an obesity asset program. The business is unable to provide specifics due to current discussions with the U.S. government, but the DTC model may also be applicable in other contexts.
The price negotiations follow the signing of a Most Favoured Nation executive order by President Donald Trump in May, which aims to link the cost of pharmaceuticals in the United States to lower costs in other industrialised countries. The PhRma trade group and other industry voices swiftly criticised the plan, calling it a lousy deal for patients in the United States.
Roche also opposed the Favoured Nation decision, expressing apprehension about then-announced U.S. investments. A $50 billion investment spree in the United States over five years, including a gene therapy production facility in Pennsylvania and a new plant in Indiana, was announced by the corporation in April.
Over the first half of 2025, Roche’s pharmaceutical division has still been growing by 10% in the United States and 5% in Europe, despite pricing issues and PBM objections. Ocrevus, Hemlibra, and Vabysmo, three top-selling medications, helped Roche’s overall pharmaceutical sales reach 24 billion Swiss francs ($30.1 billion) at that time.
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AbbVie indicated this week that it would invest $195 million to increase its manufacturing footprint in North Chicago. The business intends to start building a facility in the autumn to manufacture active pharmaceutical ingredients, with the site being completely functional by 2027. According to AbbVie, the facility will assist the pharmaceutical business in producing both current and next-generation therapies in the fields of neuroscience, oncology and immunology. It is a component of the company’s $10 billion strategy to invest in the United States.
More than 6,000 workers are now employed by AbbVie across 11 manufacturing facilities in the United States, and the planned expansion is anticipated to increase that number.Executives at AbbVie announced a few months ago that they would invest $10 billion in U.S. capital projects by 2035. As part of the investment campaign, AbbVie announced plans to construct four new production facilities in the United States, though the company did not disclose all the details at the time. To support upcoming medical advancements, AbbVie plans to increase the manufacturing of APIs, drug products, peptides, and medical devices in the United States over the course of the next ten years.
The effort from AbbVie comes as pharmaceutical companies of all sizes scramble to support their domestic manufacturing facilities. Large pharmaceutical companies including Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly, Roche, AstraZeneca and Novartis have all committed to spending tens of billions of dollars to expand their U.S. footprints in the upcoming years, in addition to AbbVie’s $10 billion commitment.
As President Donald Trump and his administration have threatened to tax pharmaceutical imports into the United States on numerous occasions, the pledges have been increasingly coming in. In early August, Trump’s most recent announcement was that pharma tariffs would be revealed within about a week. The prices would start low and eventually rise to 250%.
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Discussions with regulators over the potential blockbuster treatment for generalised myasthenia gravis (gMG) have begun after a phase 3 study of AstraZeneca’s gefurulimab met its primary and all secondary endpoints. At its investor day last year, AstraZeneca mentioned gefurulimab as one of the prospects it anticipates generating sales of between $1 billion and $3 billion.
AstraZeneca’s current gMG medication Ultomiris, which is provided as a one-hour infusion and is under pressure in a competitive market, is not expected to be able to reach a wider and earlier population than the weekly, self-administered subcutaneous nanobody C5 inhibitor.
Two-Hundred Sixty patients with anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive gMG were randomly assigned to receive either gefurulimab or a placebo in the phase 3 trial. Gefurulimab users achieved the study’s main endpoint after 26 weeks when they showed a significant improvement in their performance on a gMG scale that measures their capacity to carry out daily tasks. Secondary outcomes of the trial measured the percentage of patients classified as responders and examined performance on various gMG scales.
AstraZeneca has not yet released any data, stating simply that gefurulimab was received well, no new safety signals were detected, and the trial met all of its endpoints. AstraZeneca intends to share the findings with regulators and present the data at a medical conference.
Gefurulimab has been recognised by the company as a product that can propel growth by expanding market share through 2030 and beyond. Ultomiris is sold by AstraZeneca in gMG, although more experienced patients utilise it. Ultomiris’s gain in other indications during the first quarter was offset by competitive pressure in gMG. Although Ultomiris holds a significant market share, it is evident that other mechanisms are more appealing to patients who are transitioning from immunosuppressants or steroids as their primary treatment. Despite Ultomiris not being the only mechanism available, it is a competitor in that market. Since FcRn inhibitors were approved, the gMG market has expanded. The medication class, led by Vyvgart Hytrulo from Argenx, has provided gMG patients with options for self-administered subcutaneous therapy.
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Novartis is investing $60 million to collaborate with Matchpoint Therapeutics in an effort to develop an oral covalent inhibitor for inflammatory conditions that have proven challenging to treat in the past. The development and commercialisation of oral covalent inhibitors targeting an unidentified transcription factor linked to a number of inflammatory disorders are covered under the exclusive option and licensing agreement.
This is the first cooperation announced to the public for the preclinical Matchpoint. Novartis is expected to contribute $60 million in research funds and upfront payments. In return, Matchpoint will carry out all research up to the selection of development candidates using their covalent platform. After that, Novartis will be able to choose to license a program exclusively. If the pharmaceutical company goes ahead with this, it will acquire the worldwide rights to develop and market all products that come from the collaboration. Matchpoint may get up to $1 billion in milestone payments in exchange, as well as royalties from future sales and an option exercise payout.
Matchpoint's Advanced Covalent Exploration (ACE) drug discovery platform targets validated protein targets that have either proven difficult to treat historically or have not been sufficiently addressed by traditional methods. In an effort to create a more robust attachment to a target, ACE combines machine learning with a library of covalent chemicals and chemoproteomic screening that can detect covalent binders.
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